# קלימאַטטשאַנגע געמאכט רעקאָרד-ברייקינג העאַטוואַווע בייַ מינדסטער פינף מאל מער מסתּמא

Climate change made last week’s record-breaking European heatwave at least five - and potentially more than 100 - times more likely to happen, according to rapid analysis by leading climate scientists at the World Weather Attribution group.

These heatwaves are now also about 4°C hotter in June, the scientists found.

The study looked at three-day average temperatures across France, where the highest temperatures in Europe were recorded. Daily average temperatures have more impact on health than minimum temperatures. Heatwaves in June can be particularly harmful in Europe as fewer people are on holiday and able to avoid the highest temperatures.

Attribution studies like this one allow scientists to say by how much climate change made a particular event more likely or more intense. In these studies, scientists compare the climate as it is today, with about 1°C of warming, with the climate as it would have been without human influence.

מער ווי קסנומקס שטודיום האָבן יגזאַמאַנד whether climate change made particular weather events more likely. A rapid study by the same group that conducted today’s analysis געוויזן that climate change made last year's high temperatures in northern Europe at least two times more likely to happen.

The study also found that heatwaves are more frequent and more severe than climate models have predicted.

אַדווערטייזמאַנט

Dr Friederike Otto, acting director, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford said: “This is a strong reminder again, that climate change is happening here and now. It is not a problem for our kids only.

“These numbers show very clearly that large scale projections are indicative at best of local climate change. If we want to understand what climate change means locally we have to bring different lines of evidence together, at the local scale where decisions are made.”

Dr Robert Vautard, senior scientist, CNRS, France, said: "We experienced a heatwave whose intensity could become the norm in the middle of the century"

"The new record of 45.9°C set in France last Friday is one more step to confirmation that, without urgent climate mitigation actions, temperatures in France could potentially rise to about 50°C or more in France by the end of the century.

"Upper air made a long-distance, direct and rapid travel from Sahara to Europe, a fairly exceptional situation which is however not resulting from climate change."

Dr Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, senior researcher, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: "Climate change is no longer an abstract increase in global mean temperature, but a difference you can feel when you step outside in a heatwave.

"Both observations and models show a strong trend towards stronger heatwaves. However, the observed trend is stronger than the modelled one, and we do not yet know why.

"If the observed trend in heatwaves continues, at the Paris goal of 2ºC warming a heatwave like this will be the norm in June."

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