אין ירעלאַנד און גיבראַלטאַר, #ברעקסיט ברעג פראגעס צוזאָג "גאַניידן" פֿאַר סמאַגאַלערז

די פריש EU summit held in Salzburg did not create much hope that a Brexit accord is imminent. European Council president Donald Tusk unequivocally פארווארפן Theresa May’s much-maligned Chequers plan, while French President Emmanuel Macron pointedly called Brexiteers “liars”. This caused May to פאָדערונג respect and British foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt to אַרויסגעבן thinly-veiled threats like “don’t mistake British politeness for weakness. If you put us in a difficult corner, we will stand our ground”.

Amidst all this grandstanding, there are some concrete reasons why an acceptable “divorce deal” remains elusive. The biggest sticking point appears to be the UK-EU borders in Ireland and Gibraltar, where, among other issues, it is feared that the confusion surrounding Brexit could exacerbate a smuggling problem which is already widespread – especially in the event of a no-deal outcome. Last week’s debacle in Salzburg will have done little to allay those worries.

Backstops and red lines

The main bone of contention surrounding the Irish frontier is its existence in the first place. At present, there are no hard borders, barriers or checkpoints between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Both parties want to keep it that way. רעקאָגניזינג how important this arrangement is to maintaining the fragile peace fostered at the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, May has prioritized a “backstop” which would guarantee this setup even if the UK fails to conclude an exit deal with the EU.

However, May has also insisted that Britain remaining in the single market or customs union is a red line. Her mantra that “Brexit means Brexit” implies the UK must leave both arrangements as part of any meaningful withdrawal from the EU. This creates an essential contradiction, since May also refuses to countenance a land or sea border between Ireland and the UK. The Conservative government’s היילונג on the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to maintain a slim majority throws a further wrench in the mix, prompting Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to צוגרייטן for the worst-case scenario next year.

The Rock and a hard place

אַדווערטייזמאַנט

The Irish border might steal the lion’s share of the headlines surrounding Brexit negotiations, but the one between Spain and Gibraltar could prove equally troublesome. That is especially true given the EU has טאַלאַנטירט Spain a veto over any potential deal between the EU and the UK over Gibraltar. While Spain still has not relinquished hope of one day reclaiming its erstwhile territory, the Spanish government’s current strategy is to use the Brexit talks to update the existing arrangement.

Chief among Spanish concerns is the disparity which exists between Gibraltar’s tax regime and fiscal policies and those in the EU. The British territory is not part of the customs union, does not apply value added tax (VAT) and is exempt from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), all of which Spain claim are conducive to smuggling across the border. Black market tobacco is one of the biggest illegal imports. Last year, קסנומקס פּאַקיץ of cigarettes were seized at the border, representing a 158% hike from 2016.

Boon for tobacco black market

The issue is likely to become more entrenched in the event of a no-deal scenario next March – and not just in Spain. In 2017, approximately 520 million illicit cigarettes were קאַנסומד in Ireland, resulting in a net loss of £200 million to the Irish treasury. Retailers living near the border are increasingly worried about Brexit’s impact on the problem. With 30,000 people crossing the 310-mile Irish frontier every day, cracking down on the illicit trade is nigh impossible. Simon Sneddon of Northampton University has previously פּרעדיקטעד Brexit will create a “gangster’s paradise” for the criminals operating in the area. Not only is tobacco smuggling געגלויבט to cost EU budgets over €10 billion per annum, but it also ינקריסאַז localized smoking rates and undermines public health initiatives.

Following the disastrous Salzburg summit, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez גענומען to Twitter to air his concerns over tobacco smuggling. Sánchez’s comments came at a particularly pivotal moment in the fight against the illicit activity: early next month, Geneva will host the קאָפּקסנומקס און די MOP1 conferences, aimed at implementing the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol on Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products respectively.

As provided for in the Protocol, which officially entered into force this week, the EU is currently in the process of devising a track-and-trace system which will monitor cigarettes at every stage of the manufacturing, supply and delivery process. Properly designed, such a scheme could help to alleviate concerns about smuggling post-Brexit in Ireland and Gibraltar. However, the system as it now stands בלעטער too much leeway for industry interference, entrusting key elements to the tobacco manufacturers despite the fact that they themselves continue to צו פאַסילאַטייט smuggling of their own products.

Up in smoke

The illicit cigarette trade is just one facet of the logistical quagmire that is Brexit, but one with huge ramifications for Spain, Gibraltar and the island of Ireland. The Spanish government sees the current negotiations as an opportunity to raise a decades-old complaint. Re-imposing a border on Ireland, meanwhile, carries a real risk of provoking a return to violence and even open warfare if the situation is handled improperly. After Irish customs posts were קעגן throughout the 20^th century, it’s a frighteningly tangible possibility that a hard border will lead to remilitarisation.

As such, it’s imperative the UK and the EU come to a mutually beneficial solution. A failure to do so will not only result in the ignominy of a no-deal outcome, but millions of pounds lost to illegal trade, a blow to public health, potential פאַנדינג for terrorist organizations and the all-too-real threat that the hard-won Irish peace could go up in smoke.

 

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