# רוסלאַנד און # בעלארוס - נאָך פּאַרטנערס אָדער רייוואַלז?

The subject of relations between Russia and Belarus, two neighbors of the former Soviet Union who are drawn together by ethnic, language and cultural affinity, has always dominated Russian media environment, שרייבט אַלעקס איוואנאוו, מאָסקווער קארעספאנדענט. 

Since the end of last year, various kinds of speculations about the prospects for further rapprochement have intensified in relations between Moscow and Minsk. As it is known, back in 1999, the two countries signed an Agreement on the creation of a Union state, which, if implemented, will lead to a very close interstate integration. Indeed, much has been done over the past 20 years to bring the two countries closer together.

There are virtually no borders or customs between the countries. A fairly liberal procedure for labour migration has been introduced. The rules on social security for citizens of Russia and Belarus, which are common to both countries, apply.

Russia and Belarus are co-founders of the Customs Union and the Eurasian economic Union. The countries are linked by deep integration in the defense sector. The ultimate goal of the integration process should be the creation of a unified state structure: with its own Constitution, currency, common economic, transport and energy space, common or harmonized tax code and common financial policy.

However, difficulties arose in the process of further unification, which, according to many analysts, led to a cooling in bilateral relations.

On the one hand, Russia has stopped supplying Belarus with oil and gas at preferential prices. This led to significant losses for the budget of Belarus. Minsk for many years has been receiving Russian oil at low prices, and domestically produced a significant amount of oil products, which were sold abroad at European prices. It had really brought a significant profit for the country. According to Minsk, until 2024, the country's losses from the new terms of oil supplies from Russia will amount to more than 11 billion dollars, which is a huge amount for a small Belarus.

Belarus reacted painfully to such measures from Russia. President Lukashenko met with Putin in Sochi in February 2020, but without much results. Minsk even announced the suspension of oil supplies from Russia from the beginning of 2020. And then, largely for propaganda purposes, bought some oil from Venezuela, which turned out to be an economically unprofitable deal designed only to annoy Moscow.

אַדווערטייזמאַנט

An even more exotic step in Belarus “political manoeuvres” was an unexpected visit to Minsk in February, 1 2020 by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, during which the American offered to solve Belarus' oil and gas problems through supplies from America at "competitive prices" (this phrase caused a lot of smiles and jokes in the Russian media). All of these factors, according to analysts in Russia, had certain negative consequences for bilateral relations.

On the other hand, Moscow and Minsk cannot yet agree on the conditions for creating a Union state. There is an opinion in the press and analytical circles that Moscow gave Minsk an ultimatum at the end of 2018. Its essence is that Russia will support the crisis economy of Belarus in exchange for a degree of integration that threatens Minsk with losing its sovereignty. This, of course, did not suit the Belarusian side.

According to Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Minsk-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, “Since 2015 Kremlin consistently has reconsidered the terms and conditions of the strategic deal, cutting the level of integration subsidies and requiring deeper political, military, and economic integration from Belarus. Russia is thus violating the spirit of the deal, while Belarus remains committed. Turbulence in relations also is determined by various forms of military, political, economic, and even informational pressure on Belarus from the Kremlin. Moscow’s final goal is to force Belarusian authorities to make strategic concessions that guarantee Russian interests and undermine the national sovereignty and independence of Belarus”.

Frustrated President Lukashenko has repeatedly expressed his very emotional complaints to Moscow about the pace and meaning of further rapprochement between the two countries:

"Russia offends us, does not respect our independence, forces us to integrate, but we are prideful, even though we are small. It is useless to blackmail us, to try to bend us, to kneel on our chest. We must move towards integration in the name of unity of our peoples. I can't go to behind-the-scenes machinations, everything must be honest and open».

It is noteworthy that Moscow prefers to react very modestly to the numerous demarches of Minsk. Although many experts admit that the Kremlin refuses to discuss the issue of oil prices without further progress in the unification process of the two countries.

In Belarus itself, there is an acute reaction of ordinary people to the problem of unification. Since last year, there have been many protests in the country, the meaning of which was that the people want to live in an independent country. It seems that the authorities like this mood, although many anti-Russian actions were suppressed by the police.

Former Russian prime minister and now Deputy Chairman of the country's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev (פּיקטשערד) said that “We have a Union state. We are engaged in integration. Yes, this process is not easy. Yes, we sometimes argue about gas and oil prices,and there are some grievances. But in general, this is a workflow. We are essentially the same people as Belarusians. These are very close friends of ours. I hope that everything will be good."

A very recent episode in the political life of Belarus provoked another round of irritation in relations with Moscow. This time it is connected with a very controversial and scandalous election campaign in the light of the upcoming August 9 presidential elections in Belarus.

Lukashenko's authoritarian style of government and completely opaque election campaign led to another scandal. Everyone knows that Viktor Babariko, a businessman and banker popular in opposition circles, was recently arrested.

Babariko was detained on June 19 in the case against Belgazprombank on charges of "tax evasion" and "legalization of funds obtained by criminal means". The property of Babariko has been arrested. At the same time, he collected the necessary number of signatures for presidential nomination. Viktor Babariko was called a political prisoner, and he considers the case to be ordered.

Earlier, the European Union threatened Belarus with sanctions if Lukashenko does not release political competitors and ensure democratic elections.

The office of Belgazprombank, which was previously headed by an oppositionist, was searched. 15 people were detained and criminal cases were opened. The Bank itself introduced a temporary Manager, although the State property Committee of Belarus owns only 0.097% of the shares of Belgazprombank, and the rest — in equal shares to Gazprom and Gazprombank, that are Russian shareholders.

The fact that the Bank belongs to Russian Gazprom gave the Belarusian authorities grounds to make harsh statements to Moscow that Russia is trying to promote its own person in the presidential elections of Belarus. They claimed that Babariko is a protégée of some Russian oligarchs.

Moscow again preferred to give a very modest response, so as not to give grounds to Minsk to come out with more stringent statements.

“The Kremlin has no candidates in the elections in Belarus”, said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian President. According to him, the detention of former head of Belgazprombank and candidate for the post of President of the Republic Viktor Babariko is an internal affair of Belarus.

It is absolutely clear to everyone that the future of the troublesome relations between Moscow and Minsk will depend on many factors. First of all, political and economic ones. Each country has its own interests, which often have different vectors and directions. Belarus has many internal problems that have not been solved for many years.

It is also obvious that Moscow also wants to achieve new results on the issue of unification between the two countries.